On November 1, the Global New Energy Vehicle Cooperation and Development (Shanghai) Forum (GNEV2024 Shanghai) held by the China Electric Vehicle 100 was held in Jiading, Shanghai. With the theme of "Promoting Global cooperation and Sustainable Development of new energy vehicles", the forum invited government leaders, experts, scholars and entrepreneurs from all over the world to discuss the direction and path of jointly building a highly international cooperation ecology of new energy vehicles. Experts said that in 2024, China's automobile exports are expected to achieve the scale of 6 million, at the same time, China's new energy vehicle companies are crossing the profit inflection point.

China's car exports are expected to be the world's second largest by value

"China's exports of complete vehicles continue to grow, including the double growth of export quantity and value." According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to September 2024, China exported more than 4.7 million vehicles, with an average monthly export volume of more than 500,000 vehicles, "China's auto exports are expected to achieve 6 million vehicles this year."

According to the data summary of the first half of 2024, the scale of China's vehicle exports ranked third in the world according to the value of goods, the first is Germany and the second is Japan. However, from the current situation, the gap between China and Japan is small, and China's auto export growth rate is relatively fast. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products predicts that China may overtake Japan this year to become the second largest auto exporter by value.

In terms of automobile export market, including fuel vehicles, the Russian market is currently the largest market for Chinese automobile exports, and entering 2024, China's vehicle exports to Russia are still in a growing trend. Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil and other countries are also the main export direction of Chinese cars.

In the export market of new energy vehicles, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Australia and other countries are in the forefront of the export market, and China's automobile exports are developing in a relatively diversified direction. "Never before have Chinese auto products been welcomed by users in so many markets around the world." Zhang Shiyu said that the future global southern market, including the Middle East, North Africa, South Africa, Latin America, etc., is worthy of Chinese car companies to focus on and explore the market.

New energy vehicle companies across the profit inflection point

"The automotive industry is a long cycle industry, from a global point of view, new energy vehicle companies are still more difficult to achieve profit, the overall is still in the investment stage, but some of them have run out." Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that for example, Tesla, as well as BYD, Li Auto Car and other Chinese new energy vehicle companies have begun to make money, crossing the inflection point of profit.

"The automotive industry is a long cycle industry, from a global point of view, new energy vehicle companies are still more difficult to achieve profit, the overall is still in the investment stage, but some of them have run out." Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that for example, Tesla, as well as BYD, Ideal Car and other Chinese new energy vehicle companies have begun to make money, crossing the inflection point of profit.

In Zhang Yongwei's view, the electrification of cars is unstoppable. Many traditional large car companies with a low degree of electrification are now experiencing difficulties, although these companies are still based on the production and sales of fuel vehicles, and the relevant business is still in the profit period, but the profit continues to shrink. Starting from 2022, a huge change in the automotive industry is that the profitability of the automotive industry has become narrower from the past expansion, which is a structural change. Due to the impact of electrification, the profit margin of fuel vehicles is shrinking, and this trend is becoming more and more obvious, which is a great challenge for almost all traditional large car companies.

Zhang Yongwei said that the fastest growing regions of new energy vehicles in the world are mainly concentrated in emerging markets represented by China. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is getting higher and higher, especially the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has exceeded 50% in recent months.

Attach importance to user information security and supply chain environmental protection norms

Zhao Yang, vice president of the Automobile Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that China's new energy automobile industry has formed a complete industrial chain from upstream mineral raw material processing, power batteries to downstream vehicles, and occupies a dominant position in each link. According to the International Energy Agency, more than half of the world's raw materials such as lithium cobalt and graphite are processed in China, and China's positive battery material production capacity accounts for 70% of the world's, negative battery material production capacity accounts for 85% of the world's, and battery production capacity accounts for about 3/4 of the world's.

"Last year, Japanese companies dismantled a Chinese brand of electric vehicles, and concluded that China's electric vehicles are very excellent, far ahead of major international car companies in battery, thermal management and on-board components and other integration, while also having a very strong price competitiveness." The professional dismantling companies in the United States have also come to a similar conclusion when dismantling Chinese new energy vehicles." Zhao Yang said that technological innovation is a key force to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry.

Zhao Yang suggested that in the face of changes in the external environment, China on the one hand should insist on increasing investment in research and development of key technologies such as power batteries to improve the efficiency of charging facilities; On the other hand, it is necessary to raise the legal and compliance construction to a strategic height, carry out the ecological construction of new energy vehicles, attach importance to user information security and supply chain environmental protection norms, ensure that domestic standards are in line with international standards, and promote the international development of China's automobile industry.